Credit: Breaking Media

Daniel Lewis

Wed 6 May 2026 17:10, UK

Aston Villa have it all to do on Thursday night as they host Nottingham Forest in the second leg of their Europa League semi-final tie.

The Villans were beaten 1-0 at the City Ground in last week’s first leg through Chris Wood’s 71st-minute penalty.

Unai Emery was furious after the game as Elliot Anderson somehow avoided a red card for a nasty challenge on Ollie Watkins.

But the Spaniard’s fury perhaps should have been directed at some of his own players, with Villa going through a bad run of form at the worst possible time.

Ahead of the second leg at a packed Villa Park, the supercomputer has predicted the most likely outcome.

Aston Villa backed to overcome Nottingham Forest on the night

Emery will heavily rotate Aston Villa’s starting line-up against Forest, bringing it more in line with the side that started the first leg.

The Villans made seven changes on Sunday for the clash with Tottenham and were made to pay with a dire 2-1 defeat to the strugglers.

That came on the back of a 1-0 loss away at Fulham, meaning Villa have lost three matches in a row in all competitions.

However, Opta Analyst give Villa a 48.6 per cent chance of winning the second leg, compared to 25.7 per cent for Forest and a 25.8 per cent likelihood of a draw.

It is worth pointing out, though, that this is just the predicted outcome of the result on the night and not who advances.

Even a Villa win in 90 minutes would not be enough, with that setting up extra time and then potentially penalties.

The Villans are unbeaten in each of their past 10 meetings with Forest at Villa Park in all competitions, stretching back to October 1994, and that streak is predicted to continue.

Forest hold strong record vs English opposition in Europe

After last week’s win on home soil, Forest are now unbeaten in all three European matches against fellow English sides.

Not only that, they have kept a clean sheet each time. The Reds’ only previous away match in that run was at Anfield against Liverpool in the 1978-79 European Cup first round when drawing 0-0.

However, Villa have won each of their last nine home games in European competition since a 0-0 draw with Juventus in last season’s Champions League.

The Villans have also scored in 31 of their past 32 matches at Villa Park in all competitions – the Juve stalemate being the exception – so it is likely Forest will have to score.

So while Villa may have work to do, there is still every chance that supporters will be flocking to Istanbul in their numbers later this month.