Supercomputer predicts if Aston Villa will match worrying six-year record vs Brighton
Aston Villa have a chance to return to winning ways at Villa Park when they host Brighton in the Premier League on Wednesday.
The 1-1 draw with Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday means that Unai Emery‘s side are nine points off league leaders Arsenal.
Morgan Rogers’ goal against Bournemouth wasn’t enough to secure all three points as Rayan equalised in the second half for the Cherries.
As they return to play in B6, the Villans can’t afford to lose against a Brighton side who are on a dreadful run of form.
Aston Villa predicted as clear favourites vs Brighton
The Seagulls have won just once in their last 12 league games, and the supporters are starting to turn on Fabian Hurzeler.
They lost to bitter rivals Crystal Palace 1-0 on Sunday, and it looks as though they are set for more misery.
According to Opta‘s supercomputer, Emery’s side will get back to winning ways at Villa Park.
- Aston Villa have been given a 58.1 per cent chance of claiming all three points
- Brighton have a 20.1 per cent chance of securing their third away win of the season
- A draw has been given a 21.8 per cent probability of occurring
Aston Villa lost 1-0 to Brentford and Everton in their previous two matches in B6, and the Villans haven’t lost three home games in a row since November 2020.
That streak came under Dean Smith, with the third of those defeats coming against Brighton.
However, it seems implausible that they will match the five-year record, and they have often got the better of the Seagulls in recent meetings.
Villa have won seven of their last nine Premier League games against Brighton and are looking to complete the double over them for the third time, after doing so in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Brighton have a terrible record when playing midweek Premier League matches
Although Villa have a number of players injured, they should have more than enough to beat Hurzeler’s side.
Brighton have won just three of their 26 Premier League games played on a Wednesday, which is the lowest win rate on this specific day of any of the current 20 sides in the competition (11.5 per cent).
Despite the fact Emery’s men have won just two of their last seven midweek Premier League matches, both of those victories were against Brighton.
Villa beat Brighton 4-3 in December, with Ollie Watkins scoring a brace.
Watkins has scored more goals (nine) and has more goal involvements (11) against the Seagulls than any other side in the Premier League.
The England international averages a goal or assist every 76 minutes versus Brighton, the best rate of any player to play over 600 minutes against them.
He’ll undoubtedly play a key role in Wednesday’s meeting, and will provide a tough test for the struggling visitors.