Alan Shearer unconvinced Jhon Duran can step up to replace ‘integral’ Aston Villa star
Few strikers in the Premier League have been as effective in front of goal this season as Ollie Watkins and the Aston Villa star scored his ninth goal of the season against Brentford.
The 27-year-old was once again Villa’s hero against Thomas Frank’s side as he headed home in the 85th minute to help Unai Emery’s side maintain their excellent start to the season and move four points clear of Manchester City.
Watkins’ display at the Gtech Community Stadium earned him plenty of praise from pundits, including Alan Shearer who has been impressed by the Villa forward’s performance. But the BBC Sport pundit isn’t convinced Emery has an able enough deputy for the 27-year-old.
Writing for BBC Sport (18 December) he said: “My biggest concern with their squad would be their depth in forward positions, particularly as back-up to their leading scorer Ollie Watkins, who has started all 17 of their league games so far.
“Watkins is such an integral part of what they do, and I am not sure how they would cope without him, although it is noticeable that Villa have done a good job of keeping most of their key players fit so far.”
The primary backup option this season has been Jhon Duran, but there has been little in the 20-year-old’s recent displays to suggest that should Watkins pick up an injury he would be able to step into his shoes and provide the goals to keep Aston Villa in the title race.
Duran was introduced with 25 minutes to play against Brentford but failed to have the desired impact as Villa looked first to level the game and then claim all three points. He only had 12 touches of the ball in his cameo and only one of those was in the opposition’s box [Fotmob].
On the limited occasions, he did get on the ball, the 20-year-old only managed to complete 40 per cent of his five attempted passes and his only shot failed to test Mark Flekken as it drifted wide of the Brentford stopper’s post from long range.
Emery is yet to trust Duran with a league start this season, instead introducing the young forward in 10 of Aston Villa’s 17 league matches. He started the season with two goals against Everton and Crystal Palace but hasn’t scored in the league since September.
Instead, the Ecuadorian has been a more regular part of Emery’s side in the Europa Conference League, but even at that slightly lower level he has been unable to provide regular goals when deployed as Aston Villa’s number nine.
When compared with forwards in the Europa Conference League this season, Duran places in the 36th percentile for non-penalty goals scored per 90 minutes and the 44th for non-penalty expected goals per game [Fbref].
That is despite sitting in the top six per cent of forwards in the competition for the number of shots on target per 90 minutes. Duran’s issue is not the number of chances he gets per game, but his ability to put them into the back of the net.
Comparatively, Watkins sits in the 80th percentile for non-penalty goals scored per game when compared with Conference League strikers, despite sitting in the 35th percentile for shots taken per match.
If Aston Villa’s number 11 does pick up an injury, Emery doesn’t have a striker currently in his ranks to deputise and step up to the plate. As Shearer said, Duran is some way off Watkins’ standard and it feels unlikely that he could fire Villa to the Champions League places.
Hopefully, the Aston Villa boss can bring in a new number nine when the January transfer window opens to provide a more steady backup.
In other Aston Villa news, Clement Lenglet may have already played his final game for Villa with a January exit mooted