Sam Stone

Fri 3 March 2023 16:10, UK

Ollie Watkins has been in formidable goalscoring form in recent weeks having netted in five straight games for Aston Villa.

Before this astonishing run, the 27-year-old was criticised for being wasteful in front of goal, and it was fair. On too many occasions, the former Brentford man would blast a shot straight at an opposing player, or fail to convert a gilt-edged chance.

It cost Unai Emery’s side at times. The home fixture against Liverpool was the most prevalent example. Watkins did get on the scoresheet but failed to hit the back of the net with two further attempts on target (Wyscout).

So what exactly has changed over the course of the past five matches? First of all, the Villa striker has finally started to come close to overperforming his expected goals.

In fact, a run of goalscoring form was certainly due. His overall xG of 10.71 is now just above his actual return. However, before this run of form, it’s easy to envisage the disparity between his expected and actual output.

We will take a look at Emery’s influence, but first, it’s important to note the individual improvement Watkins has made in terms of his finishing.

In Villa’s last five matches, Watkins has managed 85 per cent shot accuracy. This is 30 per cent higher than what he has managed throughout the duration of the season.

The one blip for the former Brentford man was the loss to Leicester, where he scored but also saw three of his shots whistle wide.

The England international has all the attributes needed to be a top Premier League striker and it’s refreshing to see Watkins become more composed and measured in front of the goal.

His clinical edge was displayed during the 4-2 loss to Arsenal and the 3-1 defeat to Manchester City. Against the Premier League champions, he managed to score whilst only amassing a total xG of 0.13.

The chance he put in the back of the net was a difficult opportunity. There were three City players in close proximity plus the goalkeeper to beat from just inside the box.

The finish against Arsenal was even more impressive. His overall xG against the Gunners was just 0.05 and his opening goal was an excellent example of how he is making the most of half chances at present.

Emery’s influence cannot be understated. Watkins’ average expected goals is nearly 0.3 higher during Villa’s last five matches. Villa have been a much improved attacking threat under the Spaniard during their latest run of fixtures.

Their season average for expected goals is 1.3 per game. During the Watkins’ rich vein of form, they’ve registered an xG of 2.6. Watkins has improved his finishing, but it’s also clear that the way the team is set up is also allowing for a better quality of chance to fall his way.

Below is a heat map for Waktins’ average position throughout the course of the 2022/23 campaign. It’s clear that he spends the majority of his time in the left channel, slightly further away from the goal than he potentially would like.

Below are the five heat maps from his last five matches where he has scored in each game. However, the differences aren’t huge. The Aston Villa striker has been given the license to drift across the front line, as opposed to staying restricted to one side.

This could have potentially ended up in the striker picking up better goalscoring positions which have resulted in a better output of goals.

It’s been an awe-inspiring run of form for the striker who has significantly improved in recent weeks. He deserves immense credit, but changes to the team as a whole are certainly aiding the chances he’s seeing on a more regular basis

Life under Steven Gerrard was tough for the 27-year-old and it appears the confidence is now coursing through his veins – long may it continue.

In other Aston Villa news, one of the club’s rising stars can end a barren academy run going back to Jack Grealish.