Unai Emery’s Premier League title-chasing strategy finally wears off for Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s ability to make a mockery of expected goal stats has very much worn off.
After beating Chelsea in a comeback victory at Stamford Bridge in late December, Villa were within touching distance of Premier League title favourites Arsenal and Manchester City.
Unai Emery‘s side were enjoying a club-record winning streak of 11 games, with league leaders Arsenal just three points ahead, while City were within a point of Villa.
And they did this despite having a relatively low Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Points (xPTS) tally, as Villa, led by Morgan Rogers, scored a raft of stunning, long-range strikes.
However, the Villa Park outfit are now in danger of missing out on a Champions League qualification spot, let alone being a title contender.
So, where has it all gone wrong?
Aston Villa’s worrying Premier League statistic
Villa are fourth in the Premier League with 51 points, but their xPTS tally would have them down in 14th at 35.
Via FotMob, Villa have scored 3.7 more goals than expected and conceded 8.2 fewer than predicted.
For so long, they defied expectations as they made a mockery of xG. But they are appearing to return to the mean as the season heads into the final stretch.
Indeed, in their first 20 league games, Villa overperformed their xG by nine goals – the highest in the division. But in the subsequent nine matches, their underperformance has been the worst in the Premier League.
Moreover, in those first 20 matches, they had a conversion rate of just under 15 per cent from 81 shots. But that conversion rate plummeted to around two per cent for their last nine matches, the last of which ended in a 4-1 drubbing by Chelsea at Villa Park.
They took the lead in that game but came away with nothing, with Villa now dropping a whopping 18 points in their last nine league fixtures.
It is worth remembering that after the fifth game of the season, Villa were down in 18th and hadn’t won a league match.
By the 18th game, Villa had won more matches (12) and picked up more points (36) than any other side.
But at this rate, they are in danger of having a season where they start poorly and finish in wretched fashion.
Injuries threaten to derail Aston Villa’s season
In Villa’s 11-game winning run, they had a full complement of players to choose from, despite having a gruelling Europa League schedule to contend with.
But 2026 has not been kind to Villa so far. Midfield enforcer Boubacar Kamara is out with a serious knee injury, captain John McGinn has been out for weeks, as has playmaker Youri Tielemans.
Matty Cash has been in and out of the team due to various ailments, and Andres Garcia will not return until April.
| Aston Villa’s key injury concerns | Potential return date |
| Boubacar Kamara (knee) | Next season |
| Youri Tielemans (ankle) | Mid-April |
| John McGinn (knee) | Mid-March |
| Matty Cash (calf) | Unknown |
Villa did recall Leon Bailey from his Roma loan, recruited Douglas Luiz on loan from Juventus, and signed striker Tammy Abraham permanently from Besiktas in January.
But for now, it seems Villa are running out of steam, and their high-risk, low xG strategy is no longer paying dividends.
They are just three points ahead of Chelsea and Liverpool in fifth and sixth, respectively.
The way things are going, it would not be too surprising to see Villa miss out on Champions League football for the second year running.
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