Aston Villa: England battle between Ollie Watkins and Ivan Toney is case of form versus style
Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins is vying for a spot in England’s Euro 2024 squad this summer – but he faces stiff competition from Brentford’s Ivan Toney.
Watkins started but failed to score in the Three Lions’ 1-0 defeat against Brazil, while Toney netted a penalty in the 2-2 draw against Belgium – appearing to stake a stronger claim for inclusion.
It is widely thought that England boss Gareth Southgate will take just one central striker to Germany alongside Harry Kane, intensifying competition for a place on the plane.
Ollie Watkins v Ivan Toney – what the numbers say
Watkins boasts the better numbers in front of goal, even accounting for Toney’s vastly reduced minutes due to his lengthy suspension.
The Villa man has scored 16 Premier League goals at a rate of 0.56 per 90, slightly overperforming his xG per 90 of 0.5. His Bees counterpart, meanwhile, has struck four times at a rate of 0.4 per 90, also outperforming his xG per 90 of 0.36 [FBRef].
Additionally, Toney has yet to provide a Premier League assist, while Watkins sits joint top of the creativity charts with 10 – an especially impressive record for a centre-forward, particularly one who has also been so prolific.
However, it may be a stylistic difference that gives Toney the edge. The 28-year-old profiles more similarly to England captain Kane as a forward who is more involved in the build-up phase – as evidenced by his 40.5 Premier League touches per 90 to Watkins’ 27.02. Under Unai Emery, Watkins is generally instructed to stay high and rarely drops deep to link up with teammates.
Southgate revealed as much, as reported by Birmingham Live on March 25, with his comments about Toney’s game, saying: “I think sometimes the quality of [Toney’s] football can be underestimated. His passing, his link play.
“We’re still getting to know all of those strengths because until you work with a player more regularly you don’t know them inside out.
“You look at him being a big guy but he’s not just a target man. His quality in link play is very good as well. [His penalty record] is definitely a great asset to have. We’ve obviously got to work out the balance of the squad.”
On form, Watkins is the clear pick, but his style is fundamentally different to Kane’s. It remains to be seen whether Southgate favours the Villa man’s hot streak or his Brentford counterpart’s tactical suitability.
In other Aston Villa news, an England Under-21 international’s dazzling displays could convince Emery to hand him more minutes.
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