Dan Carter

Tue 5 September 2023 18:10, UK

When Diego Carlos went down with an injury for Aston Villa in the 19th minute against Liverpool (3 September) it was a surprise to see Leon Bailey be the man to take to the field in his place.

What was perhaps more surprising was when the ball went out of play on 65 minutes, the Jamaican international’s number once again appeared on the fourth official’s board and he headed straight down the tunnel as he was replaced by Nicolo Zaniolo.

Bailey wasn’t injured, and after the game, Unai Emery admitted it was entirely a tactical decision on his part to keep the Villans fresh and try and maintain the style of football that has served them well this season.

As quoted by Birmingham Live (4 September) Emery said: “He played 90 minutes on Thursday, he played more or less 45 minutes. I decided that after 3-0 that we need to continue being consistent and practice something, playing with John McGinn and Moussa Diaby like we did in pre-season.”

Bailey’s short cameo was by no means disastrous, in his 46 minutes played, he created one chance, completed two dribbles, made four ball recoveries and completed his only cross (Fotmob) before he was the player removed from the fold.

Diaby on the other hand in the 90 minutes he played at Anfield also created one chance, only completed one of his four attempted dribbles, made three ball recoveries and didn’t attempt a single cross, but is very clear the Frenchman pips Bailey in the pecking order.

So far this season the Jamaican has started three of Villa’s four Premier League games, playing 154 minutes all together and has managed to score one goal and register one assist, while Diaby has started all four matches scoring two goals and assisting once in 314 minutes.

Bailey’s issue is the fact he has seen Villa find an upgrade on him, before his own eyes with Diaby possessing much of the same qualities as the 26-year-old, but with a much more clinical edge when in front of goal.

Diaby falls in the 93rd percentile of wingers in Europe’s top five leagues for expected goals per 90 minutes, with an average of 0.35 and has overperformed that in the last year, with his non-penalty goal rate per match being 0.4. (Fbref)

Bailey on the other hand underperformed his xG rate of 0.26 (70th percentile) and only registered 0.2 non-penalty goals per 90 (49th percentile) a far cry from the sort of threat that Diaby has managed in the last year of his career.

Room for both

While Bailey’s immediate walk down the tunnel suggests he wasn’t particularly pleased with Emery’s decision to substitute him only 45 minutes after he took to the field, Bailey still has a crucial role to play at Villa Park this season.

Had he started the game and been removed at half-time little would have been made over his substitution and no one would’ve viewed it as an odd decision after he featured in the midweek match.

He is a different option to Diaby and while the Frenchman can be seen as an upgrade in terms of goal-scoring ability, Bailey will be required to play a lot of minutes for Aston Villa this year as they compete both domestically and in Europe.

Last year Villa only played 41 matches in all competitions and the World Cup break didn’t require as much depth, whereas this year they will already have to play at least 48 games having qualified for the group stages of the Europa Conference League.

Even after being withdrawn early in the loss to Liverpool, Bailey remains a crucial member of this squad and whether it will be through starting every week or not, he will play a lot of minutes for Emery this year.

In other Aston Villa news, John McGinn has dubbed the start of Villa’s season as a rollercoaster