Sam Stone

Tue 24 January 2023 14:41, UK

Unai Emery’s flying start as Aston Villa manager continued on the south coast as the Villans earned a deserved 1-0 win over Southampton.

The Saints proved to be a tough nut to crack, however, Villa were good value for their win – and how they now have their sights firmly set on the top half of the table.

A European push looks unlikely at the moment with a couple of tough fixtures on the horizon, but this weekend’s game against Leicester City looks like another golden opportunity for Villa to continue their impressive run of form.

With back-to-back games against Arsenal and Manchester City coming up, Emery will be desperate to put another three points on the board before they take on the Premier League’s pace-setters.

It’s certainly been an up-and-down season for Brendan Rodgers’ side, with the former Liverpool boss facing plenty of pressure at the start of the campaign.

A good run of form appeared to save Rodgers from the sack, however, he’s yet again been put under the spotlight after another poor spell of form.

Defensively, Leicester have a whole host of problems and it’s easy to see why they’ve conceded the third most goals in the Premier League this season. Their expected goals against (29.46, Wyscout) is far better than their actual goals conceded – which does indicate that they’ve potentially been a tad unlucky. Nevertheless, it’s still a fairly dismal record.

Interestingly, Leicester have conceded nine goals from outside the penalty box, which is the second-highest in the Premier League. One explanation as to why is the fact that they like to sit relatively deep and not try and press teams intensely.

Passes per defensive action is an excellent metric for measuring a team’s pressing statistics and Leicester’s 13.11 passes allowed in the fourth-highest in the league. Essentially, they allow their opposition time on the ball, and unfortunately, they’re doing it in dangerous areas. This could well be a game for Philippe Coutinho to finally produce one of his vintage long-range efforts if he is given the time and space to do so.

In the recent draw against Brighton, the Foxes conceded a late goal despite having plenty of men behind the ball. In the image below, there are ten Leicester players all camped in their own half. Granted, it is late on into the fixture and they’re trying to see the game out, but it’s their natural reaction to drop deep when defending.

Sadly for Leicester, their defensive methods are not working at the moment. Despite pretty much the whole team being behind the ball, Evan Ferguson is able to move into the box unmarked and head home unchallenged.

Wout Faes is still finding his feet in the Premier League – and Daniel Amartey has been more of a makeshift central defender in recent years. Villa under Emery have utilised runners from midfield well and late arrivals into the box could well be crucial if the Foxes opt to deploy their usual low block.

Faes is a player Ollie Watkins must be looking to target. Against Brighton the physical defender struggled aerially, failing to win any of his aerial duels.

This is certainly a game for Aston Villa to dominate in a possession sense. If they can get on the front foot and camp themselves in Villa’s half, they will be able to utilise the quality of Emi Buendia and Coutinho in attacking areas, and also give the likes of Jacob Ramsey and John McGinn the license to get into the box without having to worry too much about their defensive responsibilities.

Furthermore, this could be the perfect opportunity for the new-signing Alex Moreno to demonstrate what he can do going forward, with overlapping runs from full-backs potentially crucial in breaking down a stubborn defensive shape.

In other Aston Villa news, a first-team outcast has agreed a loan deal with Strasbourg in the January transfer window.