View: Time for Ollie Watkins to show some composure in front of goal for Aston Villa
It’s been a difficult season for Aston Villa in front of goal with only 16 Premier League goals scored so far in the 2022/23 campaign.
Danny Ings has led the way when it comes to the goalscoring charts, with the former Southampton man amassing double the amount of goals than his strike partner Ollie Watkins.
Ings is actually performing well this season, with his actual output (five Premier League goals) pretty much in line with his expected goals of 4.6 (XG) (Wyscout). However, it’s a very different story when it comes to Watkins, with the 26-year-old’s XG amongst the top ten in the whole of the Premier League (5.17). Sadly, Watkins’ goal return of two doesn’t quite match up to what is expected of him.
So what exactly is going wrong for the former Brentford striker in front of goal?
The first telling stat lies in his XG per 90 minutes, with Watkins’ being 0.15 less than his teammate Ings. Essentially Ings earns himself higher-quality chances during each game.
An explanation of this can be that Ings is having more touches in the box and looking to stretch teams more than Watkins, with Ings being caught offside nearly twice as much.
The diagram above is Danny Ings shot map from the 2022/23 season and it clearly shows that the majority of his work has been inside the box and more specifically all his goals have come from within the width of the goal.
Watkins’ 28 shots this season (one more than Ings) have also all come from inside the box, with his two goals coming from within the width of the goal. The first assumption to make is that the 26-year-old isn’t being particularly clinical, and that’s fair enough, he does need to add a lethal edge to his game.
However, a closer look will highlight a larger number of his efforts coming from an angle, without a goal scored. Ings had a much lower number of shots from less favourable positions. This could indicate two things. Firstly that Watkins simply isn’t good enough to be a consistent threat from harder positions, and secondly, he needs to get into the centre of the box more regularly.
Considering the number of shots Watkins has had, he can count himself quite unlucky to not have more goals to his name so far this season. In two games (Leeds United and Manchester United) the 26-year-old registered four shots on target, which indicates the defenders and goalkeepers are potentially having good games.
This point-blank save from David Raya is a good example of the bad luck the striker is having in front of goal at the moment. The keeper knew little about it but still managed to lay a glove on the ball to prevent an almost certain goal.
This strike against Leeds United was another example of a goalkeeper making an excellent save with Illan Meslier getting down smartly to his left to prevent a goal.
Could there be something wrong with the way Watkins is looking to finish at the moment? The majority of his strikes are low-driven shots, where he gets his head down and doesn’t assess where the goalkeeper is before striking the ball.
This example against Chelsea is almost the ‘trademark’ from the Aston Villa striker, with Watkins looking to get his head over the ball and prioritising power over everything else. This scenario is ideal for a curled shot into the far corner.
If he can show a little bit more composure in his finishing, then there’s no reason why Watkins cannot chase down his teammate in the scorers’ charts.
In other Aston Villa news, a new inner-city academy shows the vision of a growing club.