(Credit: Imago)
(Credit: Imago)
Match

Supercomputer makes bold Aston Villa Champions League prediction after Burnley victory 

Jack Dawson
Jack Dawson

Correspondent AUTHORITY Football journalist with experience at the Edinburgh Evening News and GRV Media; Masters graduate from the University of Derby. FOCUS Scottish Premiership coverage with specialist knowledge of Rangers, Celtic, Hearts, Aberdeen, and Motherwell. THE INSIGHT Jack utilises a network of club and industry contacts across the Scottish Premiership to deliver verified, high-speed reporting. He provides the tactical and transfer insight behind the headlines to ensure fans get the full story as it happens.

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Aston Villa’s start to the new 2025-26 campaign has been tough.

While results are now starting to go in Unai Emery’s favour, the season has no doubt been poor overall.

With the October international break underway, Villa sit 13th and have still only scored six times in the Premier League, one of the lowest in the division.

Despite Villa beating Burnley 2-1 on the weekend, there were still plenty of players who underperformed in a match that Emery’s side were expected to win comfortably. 

As a result, it would seem that a Champions League return this season is impossible. However, Villa have continued to close in on the top four.

Aston Villa's Donyell Malen points
Donyell Malen scored a brace past Burnley on Sunday (Credit: Imago)

Opta increases Aston Villa’s chances of reaching the Champions League 

After Villa narrowly missed out on the Champions League last season, Emery is no doubt looking to make up for this error.

While the Europa League is a potential route to achieving this, the Premier League could be Villa’s best chance.

However, given that Opta on 6 October believes that Villa should be 18th in the division based on their expected points, few would back them to achieve this.

  • Villa have an expected points total of 6.6
  • This is the third-lowest in the division
  • As a result, they are currently overperforming by 2.4

Yet, the supercomputer actually believes that Emery’s side have increased their chances of reaching Europe’s most prestigious competition in recent weeks.

At the end of the summer transfer window, Villa had an 11.18 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Now, according to Opta’s latest prediction, this has risen to 13.68 per cent, with Emery’s side predicted to finish ninth.

Unai Emery unhappy at Aston Villa on the touchline during a match
Unai Emery is looking to guide Villa back to their best (Credit: Imago)

This is likely based on their recent back-to-back Premier League wins. However, it is still a bold move considering that Villa’s performances have remained poor.

Realistically, Villa don't stand a chance of getting into the Champions League based on their current displays, especially if they are struggling to get past the likes of Burnley.

Despite their dominance against the newly-promoted side, Villa only managed a 1.16 xG at Villa Park according to Fotmob on 6 October, despite having 15 shots, seven of which were on target.

Therefore, if Emery's side contiunue to be wasteful, their odds of reaching the Champions League will surely decrease once again.

Aston Villa need to achieve European football again this season

If Villa plan on remaining a force in the Premier League, ensuring their stay in Europe is vital.

The additional venue and prestige of competing in these competitions is highly important not just for attracting better players, but ensuring their current squad remains at Villa Park.

The last thing Emery will want is to follow the footsteps of Leicester City, who are now in the Championship after numerous spells in Europe.

Hopefully, the recent turnaround in results is a sign that Villa are slowly getting back on track.

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